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Weekly analysis

Will the US dollar bull market continue in 2017?

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The USD/CAD currency pair rose last week around 200 pips, based on the U.S. and Canada data.


The National Association of Realtors said last week that existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.71 million, a 4.4% monthly increase. That was the strongest selling pace since February 2007 and was 5.9% higher than a year ago. Tight inventory is still the biggest factor in the marketplace: supply was 6.6% lower compared to a year ago. According to Statistics Canada, excluding food and energy, the the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 1.7% year over year in March, after posting a 2.0% increase in February. Prices were up in five of the eight major components in the 12 months to March, with the transportation and shelter indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year rise in the CPI.
Other potential rate hikes for this year
According to other news, Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said that two more interest rate hikes this year remains possible but that the U.S. central bank has the flexibility to wait and see how the economy unfolds. The Fed has already raised its benchmark interest rate once this year, by a quarter percentage point at its last policy meeting in March.
Kaplan said that three rate increases this year is still a good baseline. The Dallas Fed chief noted he was watching inflation and that even though it continued to slowly move up. Excess capacity in China and technology-enabled disruption of business were both exerting downward pressure.

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Oil exports fell
Oil exports fell to 6.95 million barrels a day, the lowest since May 2015, from 7.7 million a day in January, according to data published by Joint Organisations Data Initiative website. Saudi Arabia trimmed exports to a 21-month low in February as local refineries took advantage of more abundant supplies and processed a record amount of crude.

A future growth of the British economy?

The UK economy is in a good shape, according to the last week economic data, despite the economic uncertainty caused by Brexit. The rate was at 2.3 percent as in February. That’s still the highest since 2013 and up from just 0.5 percent a year ago.

Consumer prices rose

According to the Office for National Statistics, consumer prices rose 0.4 percent. Airfares fell 4 percent, compared with a 23 percent jump a year earlier. Across the UK, prices rose by 5.8% in the year to February, up from 5.3% in January. The most recent figures from the Nationwide and the Halifax have suggested that house price growth is slowing down. However, the ONS data (which include cash sales) show that the average price of a property has risen to a record high of £217,502. According to the Office for National Statistics, consumer prices rose 0.4 percent. Airfares fell 4 percent, compared with a 23 percent jump a year earlier. Across the UK, prices rose by 5.8% in the year to February, up from 5.3% in January. The most recent figures from the Nationwide and the Halifax have suggested that house price growth is slowing down. However, the ONS data (which include cash sales) show that the average price of a property has risen to a record high of £217,502.

UK house price Jan07 Mar17

UK jobless rate, in line with expectations

The ILO jobless rate held steady at 4.7 percent in three months to February, in line with expectations. It has not been lower since June to August 1975. The employment rate was 74.6 percent in three months to February. Average earnings including bonus advanced 2.3 percent annually, slightly faster than the expected 2.2 percent.

Uncertainty for firms in the medium term?

According to a recent business survey, the services sector also recovered to rack up its strongest sales growth since last June's Brexit vote. British manufacturers reported the fastest export growth in more than two years in early 2017. Even if British Chambers of Commerce said firms reported a robust short-run outlook, there was much more uncertainty about the medium term as well as fears of sharply rising costs.

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U.S. Dollar: A week of strong increase

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The U.S. dollar climbed against most major peers last week. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0581 last week, the lowest level since March 10, after important U.S. economic data. The jobless rate unexpectedly sank to the lowest in almost a decade. The U.S. economy is gaining traction. Companies added 263,000 jobs in March, according to the latest ADP and Moody's Analytics private payrolls report. That was above the 185,000 expected from most economists.


According to the Governor Daniel Tarullo, the job growth at american companies provides a confirmation of a trend of strength in employment. The unemployment rate fell to 4.5 percent from 4.7 percent. The market isn’t worried about jobs picture at this moment, preferring to focus on the path of Fed tightening. The Fed meeting on interest rates will be on May 2-3. A major debate on Wall Street is whether the Fed increases rates two more or three more times in 2017.

EUR/CAD Weekly Analysis ( March 27-31)

Daily chart analysis
The EUR/CAD currency pair is in a retracement at the moment, according to the daily chart. The end of the retracement might be at 1.4532 (Fibo 50%). It is highly possible that the MACD and the stochastic oscillator will turn negative next week.

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8 hour chart analysis
According to the 8 hour chart, the EUR/CAD currency pair is into a range between 1.4500 and 1.4350 at the moment. If the price exits from the range below 1.4350, it might continue to fall below EMA 200 (1.4371).

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EUR/GBP Weekly analysis ( March 20-24)

Daily chart analysis
The EUR/GBP pair will continue in a downtrend if falls below EMA 200 (0.8599), according to the daily chart. The MACD is near a negative mode. A possible target for this currency pair may be Fibo 23% (0.8520), then 0.8424, in order to form a triangle.

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8 hour chart analysis
According to the 8 hour chart, the MACD is in negative territory. The downtrend may continue for this pair if the price reaches Fibo 50% (0.8626).

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EUR/USD Weekly Analysis ( March 13-17)

Daily chart analysis
The EUR/USD currency pair has increased, but the price is still below EMA 200. A possible next target as a retracement might be Fibo 50% ( 1.0814), then Fibo 61%( 1.0928). The MACD is positive and the stochastic oscillator indicates an uptrend in the short term.

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8 hour chart analysis
The price on EUR/USD is above EMA 200 and this indicates an uptrend in the medium term. The uptrend will continue until at least Fibo 50% (1.0818), when it will close an intermediate gap. The MACD also indicates a positive trend for this currency pair.

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Gold Weekly Forecast ( March 6-10)

Daily chart analysis
The downtrend will continue below EMA50 (1220). A first target in the medium term might be at 1179.41 (Fibo 23%). According to the daily chart, the MACD and the stochastic oscillator confirm the downtrend.

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8 hour chart analysis
The MACD indicates a downtrend on the 8 hour chart. The confirmation of a downtrend will be below EMA 200, with a potential target at 1204.45 (Fibo 38%).

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USD/CHF Weekly Forecast ( February 27-March 3)

Daily chart analysis
The confirmation of a downtrend for the USD/CHF currency pair is below EMA50 ( 1.0030). A possible target for this pair might be at 0.9780 (Fibo 38%), in the medium long term. The stochastic oscillator indicates already a downtrend. The MACD is near a downtrend confirmation.

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8 hour chart analysis
The MACD is already negative, according to the 8 hour chart. A downtrend confirmation is below the 61% Fibo (1.0030). A possible near term target is at 0.9940 (Fibo 50%).

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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast ( February 20-24)

Daily chart analysis
Another retracement wave is expected if the price reaches EMA 50 (1.0662). The stochastic oscillator also indicates a retracement continuation. The price might rise at Fibo 38% ( 1.0830). A potential target for the EUR/USD currency pair in the long term is Fibo 50% (at 1.0980).

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8 hour chart analysis
The MACD is positive, according to the 8 hour chart. If the price reaches EMA 200 ( 1.0694), this will be a confirmation of an uptrend in the short term. The price might rise more in order to form a triangle at 1.0812.

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USD/JPY Weekly Forecast ( February 13-17)

Daily chart analysis
The USD/JPY currency pair is into an uptrend at this moment. According to the daiy chart, The MACD and the stochastic oscillator are positive and a potential target might be 116,61 (Fibo 76%).

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8 hour chart analysis
The MACD is positive and the price is still above EMA200. The price is still in an uptrend and it might rise at 115.30, in order to form a triangle in the medium term.

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